住宅市場價格波動的異質有限預期模型

Abstract

研究目的在於分析異質有限預期條件下，住宅市場的價格波動。住宅市場被視為由具有異質、互競預期的行為人所構成的演化系統。研究結果解釋了住宅市場價格波動的一些典型現象，如均衡或震蕩、收斂或偏離等。此外，研究顯示市場結構的變動取決於行為人的策略選擇。由於不同市場調節工具對價格波動的影響不同，市場監控政策應視特定市場、特定時期的具體情況而制定。

The housing price dynamics was tested when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations, such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. Housing market was investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing pricevaries substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. The simulation results explain some stylized phenomena, such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that the variation of the proportion of each group of the agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It is indicated that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a uniquereal estate market during a unique period since some certain parameters portfolio mayincrease or suppress the oscillation.