異質預期條件下房價波動非線性延滯差分方程

Abstract

通過建立蛛網模型分析經濟變動對具有後向預期性質的房地產市場的價格波動的影響。其中，市場需求函數采用簡單使用者成本模型，而供給函數則以存量–流量模型為基礎。通過建立一組n階延滯差分方程來分析一類異質後向預期房價波動模型的性質，例如均衡或振蕩,收斂或偏離等。結果顯示需求彈性小於供給彈性並不是形成振蕩的必要條件。房價的波動會隨著異質後向預期假設以及其他內生因素的不同而產生本質不同的變化。

This paper aims to analyze the housing price dynamics after an unanticipated economic shock,which was believed to have similar properties with the backward-looking expectation models. The analysis of the housing price dynamics was based on the cobweb model with a simple user cost affected demand and a stock-flow supply assumption. Several nth-order delay rational difference equations were set up to illustrate the properties of housing dynamics phenomena, such as the equilibrium or oscillations, overshoot or undershoot and convergent or divergent, for a kind of heterogeneous backward-looking expectation models. The results show that demand elasticity is less than supply elasticity is not a necessary condition for the occurrence of oscillation. The housing price dynamics will vary substantially with the heterogeneous backward-looking expectation assumption and some other endogenous factors.